The Evidence
The Texas Report
We scored every ACA plan sold in Texas for 2026, in all 254 counties, at ages 25, 40, 60. That is 52,944 plan-listings — one plan, in one rating area, at one age.
94.6% of them are dominated.
50,069 of 52,944 listings lose to another plan on the same menu no matter how the year goes — cheaper to buy and a lower worst case. Not “usually a worse deal”. Worse in every outcome.
What survives is 2,875 Short List listings, of which 2,135 are rungs on the ladder — the ones where paying more actually buys proportionate protection.
How this is counted. A listing is one plan, in one rating area, at one age. The same plan sold in two rating areas counts twice, because it is two different decisions facing two different buyers. This is a share of listings, not of distinct plans, and not of people — buyer-weighted figures are lower, because the dominated plans are not the ones most people end up in.
The menu is the problem
A 40-year-old Texan chooses from between 25 and 215 plans depending on where they live. The median menu across every cell we scored is 60. Nobody compares that many options on two dimensions in their head. That is not a failure of effort; it is what the menu is designed to defeat.
Age 40, plan year 2026. Ages 25 and 40 and 60 are on each rating-area page.
Some of the best plans are not on HealthCare.gov
- silver: buying off-exchange is cheaper in 96.3% of the 81 cells we scored, by an average of $2,725 a year.
This holds only if you are not claiming a premium subsidy — subsidies apply on-exchange only. If you are subsidy-eligible, the exchange is almost always the right place to buy, and we will say so.
Plan year 2026, analysis generated 2026-08-13. Method in full at /evidence/methodology. Prices are the carriers’ own, set by law — Wellward does not affect them.